Relative to the Yankees, the big losses for the Rays (Corey Kluber, Kevin Kiermaier) and Jays (pretty much just Ross Stripling) are relatively mild. Now, I did say there was one major exception, and thats in-season roster changes. by Handedness, The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1124 2023 1B Rankings Preview #1, https://media.blubrry.com/rotographs/cdn-podcasts.fangraphs.com/RotoGraphs-Audio-01-09-2023.mp3, Justin Masons Baseball Chat January 9th, 2023. These projected standings do take the strength of schedule into consideration, which will be a bit more uniform now that the league has rebalanced the schedule. I doubt theyll enter the season with Ryan Pepiot in the rotation. Signing Kris Bryant to launch dingers into the stratosphere in Denvers thin air is undeniably cool and fun. It would be quite the storyline if those three franchise icons went out with one last postseason appearance. Not giving Witt every opportunity to be a foundational talent at shortstop so that the Royals can be a .480 team instead of a .478 one doesnt feel like it has the same upside. He was the biggest addition to their club, but they also traded for Sonny Gray, Gary Snchez, and Gio Urshela, and made a last minute move for Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagn. The latest episode of The Sleeper and the Bust is live. Trent Grisham, CF; Manny Machado, 3B; Jake Cronenworth, 2B; Luke Voit, DH; Wil Myers, RF; Eric Hosmer, 1B; Austin Nola, C; Jurickson Profar, LF; Ha-Seong Kim, SS; Last season's Padres ranked 14th in both runs scored and wRC+, a catch-all metric housed at FanGraphs that adjusts for park and other variables. I guess this explains why theyve spent no money this offseason. But many of the players who fell flat on their face in 2022 . Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and contributes to ESPN's Daily Notes. ATC: ATC Projections courtesy of Ariel Cohen. Ariel is also the winner of the 2020 FSWA Baseball Article of the Year award. You may not think it significant but for Dolan to spend 8 figures in FA is. The Braves have short-term and long-terms questions in their rotation that are still waiting to be answered. Third base (or second) is a better long-term home for him than shortstop, so last years Willy Adames acquisition showed the correct instinct on Milwaukees part. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Depth Charts: FanGraphs Depth Chart projections are a combination of ZiPS and Steamer projections with playing time allocated by our staff. Their problem is that none of Kansas Citys young pitchers have stepped up to contribute in a big way yet. The Phillies certainly need a starting pitcher, and ZiPS is less than enthralled with the situation at second base and definitely isnt on Team Brandon Marsh. They rode an excellent bullpen and some clutch hitting to a 90-win season but fell short of breaking their historic playoff drought by just two games. That was Milwaukees focus this offseason, trading for Hunter Renfroe and signing Andrew McCutchen to supplement the lineup. Those three should give a significant boost to an offense thats floundered since the core of the 2015 championship team was broken up. Speaking of unanswered questions: Will Christian Yelich return to being the MVP-caliber player he was in 2018 and 19, or is the seriously diminished production of the last two years his new baseline? Yikes. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Here's FanGraphs preseason projections in 2018: https://fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2018-03-28&dateDelta= Notice that are 18 teams <25%. Some may think it disappointing that the Mariners are still projected to win fewer games than in 2021, but exceeding Pythagorean record by 14 wins isnt something that actually has value in gauging future performance. Bryson Stott (No. The Marlins find themselves on even footing with the teams in this tier behind the strength of their exciting pitching staff. So under the current format, they make it in as the first wildcard and have to face * checks notes * Jacob DeGrom or Corbin Burnes in a 1 game playoff. But it would be a lot easier to do if they could bring back Freddie Freeman. ZiPS gave Cleveland the most prospects in its top 100 and is a fan of the Royals Bobby Witt Jr., Nick Pratto, and MJ Melendez, so both could have much more sunny prognostications in another year or two. Loosely, money spent outside of planned raises and inexpensive (think 2yrs, $13M or 1yr, $4.5M) roster hole plugging that every team does. As you might logically suspect, ZiPS systematically underestimates teams that add value during the season and overrates teams that subtract value. After all, they didnt even win their own division last year after taking the NL West eight years in a row. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. This projection does include the addition of Matt Olson but it should pointed out, the Braves arent done with off-season moves. Correa is an interesting wild card here simply because he elevates the Mets' lineup from top-heavy to balanced. Those additions might not have been as flashy as adding Carlos Correa or trading for Olson as some Yankees fans dreamed about, but it does give them a solid infield that should be vastly improved defensively. You can show your support to Fangraphs by becoming a member! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. With three World Series appearances over the last five seasons and just one championship to show for it, you could view their recent dynasty as having some unfinished business despite its excellence. Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco are both on the wrong side of 35, and the former has already dealt with some minor injuries this spring. Its not just their new additions either. Yes, the " ZiPs" projections developed by FanGraphs' Dan Szymborski still see the Tigers as a sub-.500 team. The Angels are a lackluster team with a lackluster offseason, so they ended up with a lackluster projection. With Spencer Torkelson on the Opening Day roster and Riley Greene close behind him (once he heals from his spring foot injury), Detroit has loudly declared its intention to compete sooner rather than later. He's a switch-hitter with a hit/power combination that would probably make him an All-Star anywhere on the diamond, while also being a plus defender at the most demanding . Its a deeper roster than last year, and even if areas like the bullpen arent exciting, the Jays have heirs and spares in place. tbh I wouldn't give these projections any credit until the offseason finishes. If that number is real they arent doing any spending of significance either. by Handedness, The Absurdly Preliminary 2023 ZiPS Projected Standings, Despite Non-Tender and Big Struggles, Theres Hope for a Bellinger Revival, Angels Snare Hunter Renfroe, Brewers Fill Up on Pitchers. ANGELS 1) How many of the vets can stay healthy? Thats an incredible run of success, and theyre not letting up anytime soon. Dansby Swanson is a big loss, but when you see the projection for Vaughn Grissom, youll understand why the Braves dominate this very preliminary run of the NL East standings. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Shane Bazs elbow injury was a particularly unwelcome bit of news. by Retrosheet. The addition of Trevor Story to their roster gives the Red Sox three superstars on the infield with a fantastic supporting cast led by J.D. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Correa is a serious loss for the Astros, but they still project as the most complete team in the division. Gone are Gausman, Cueto, Buster Posey, Kris Bryant, Donovan Solano and a host of other role players. One risk facing the Royals is that Witt plays third base, with Nicky Lopez remaining the shortstop. Much like FanGraphs, PECOTA really likes the Braves in 2022, which hasn't always been the case. It isnt difficult to understand why the Mets locked up Edwin Daz so quickly. The lineup is neither good nor particularly young, and as such, it will likely struggle to push the Marlins to be much better than the National Leagues 14th-ranked offense in runs scored, Miamis 2021 mark. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors So its not surprising that when you total it up, two of the teams that have made the most in-season additions over the last 17 seasons, the Astros and Yankees, are the two teams that have underperformed most often in ZiPS. These 2023 projections are guaranteed to be awful, wrong in many ways ranging from tragic to comic. Despite a disappointing debut in 2021 that. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski. Another 15 wins to add to this projection seem pretty straightforward. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Read the rest of this entry . Former Braves outfielder is headed to the AL East. That move alters the direction of the organization considerably. ZiPS Projected Standings American League East, ZiPS Projected Standings American League Central, ZiPS Projected Standings American League West. The result is a million different rosters for each team and an associated winning percentage for each of those million teams. With Joey Votto, reigning NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India, Luis Castillo, and Tyler Mahle still on the roster, Cincinnati has some talent left, but it was a very confusing process to get to this point. ZiPS Projections 2023 2022 AL For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. Standings at this point are a poor predictor of the 2023 season and even the eventual 2023 projections themselves but what they are able to do is give a state of the union estimate for each team. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski. With the Giants predicted for an 85-win season by both models, the four-win difference amounts to a massive playoff probability decrease. The Astros have a solid argument to be considered among the teams a tier above, especially after their third World Series appearance in the last five seasons. In his best season, Joey Votto was still nearly a quarter more likely to swing at an out-of-the-zone pitch than Soto was as a 22-year-old in 2021. by Handedness, Looking Back at the 2022 ZiPS Projections, 2022 ZiPS Projections: Washington Nationals, 2022 ZiPS Projections: Kansas City Royals. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. 2022 Playoff Odds, . Prior to signing Ramrez, Cleveland had been inconceivably passive during the offseason, signing just a single free agent to a new major league contract (Luke Maile). On the pitching side of things, lingering elbow issues for Lance McCullers Jr. have made the depth of their rotation a question mark. Things may get worse before they get better, however, as theres no guarantee that either Sean Murphy or Ramn Laureano starts the season with Oakland. The Bills are a 4.5-point favorite in the game. I feel 81 wins is a pretty reasonable expectation for them. The lesson is that the competitive window can close really fast, dont take anything for granted, and dont invite back your 76 year old buddy to manage the team because you feel like you owe him a favor. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Their lineup is plenty strong, though, with Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Tucker forming a powerful quartet. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Hes about half of their payroll now. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. I know they dont want to block their prospects, but they dont seem to have been all that imaginative; the Red Sox figured out how to add Story to a team that already had Xander Bogaerts. Too many wins for the Dodgers and too few for the Giants. As usual, dont hesitate to tweet us or comment below with fantasy questions. FanGraphs simulates each season 10,000 times to generate the probabilities. With a strong rotation led by Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, it finally seems like Philadelphia has assembled the talent to break their 10-year playoff drought. These two NL Central rivals feel like theyre heading in different directions despite being projected for the same win totals in 2022. Wander Francos very quickly become a star, and Brandon Lowe is my pick for the most underrated second baseman in the game. Confusingly, Lowe wasnt even one of the American Leagues four Silver Slugger finalists at second base in 2021, as his .863 OPS apparently wasnt up to the standards of DJ LeMahieu (.711 OPS, about half his games not at second). Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. The success of ATC stems from minimizing parameter risk across the player pool, which you can read more about here. ZiPS sees the Twins rotation as increasingly deep, but without any huge upside, and Carlos Correa will almost certainly be in another teams uniform come Opening Day. Thats another reason I love FanGraphs odds because they update daily throughout the season as records and rosters change. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!! You forgot the except Cleveland at the end of that. So when I see them drop on my timeline sometime around mid-March every year, its an instant click of me. If you start by looking at the offensive comps in the chart below, you can see how quickly things go downhill in the batters projections. Although he didnt pitch for Atlanta due to injury - and only spent six weeks in the organization - he was a key part of the Braves mid-2010s rebuild. They will play a number of baseball games in 2023 and win at least a handful of them. edit: damnit, I screwed it up. Podcasts: FanGraphs Audio . If you squint, you can sort of see how it could work out for them, but theyll likely come up short this season. As everything sits today, PECOTA gives the Braves a 7% to win the World Series, a very strong number, and a 45% chance to win the division, almost identical to the Mets. But despite being absolutely premature and littered with horrible misses, projected standings at this point are actually quite useful, and useful is the best description any kind of predictive model can strive for. Below are the projections for the Tampa Bay Rays. But without their ace, their ceiling is just a bit lower. These rankings, though, are entirely data driven. This year? Rutschman is a complete, franchise-altering prospect, and one of the most exciting young players in the entire sport. That Bobby Witt Jr. projects well is not a surprise, but Nick Pratto, MJ Melendez, and Vinnie Pasquantino all crushed the feckless assortment of minor league pitchers they faced, and you have to feel much better about the long-term outlook of all three in the majors. None of Starling Marte, Mark Canha, or Eduardo Escobar are superstars though Marte comes close at times but signing that trio really improved how the lineup looks going into 2022. This would the same mistake that the Orioles made some years ago with Manny Machado and J.J. Hardy; for a handful of runs, the team would needlessly be lowering the ceiling on a franchise player. Seagers health record hasnt been perfect, but it hasnt been Eric Davis-like, either, and he still has a couple of seasons left of his 20s. For these Opening Day power rankings, Ive used each teams projected stats based on their Depth Charts projections. Now, hes the big loss, but Jameson Taillon and Matt Carpenter matter, too, though it isnt likely that Carpenter will match his 2022 performance anyway. : 0767266154 or via messenger Facebook page. Gambling problem? Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors The success of their season will likely hinge on those youngsters and their ability to acclimate quickly to the big leagues. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. ZiPS projects McNeil's 2023 BABIP to be .316, in line with his career average of .314, accounting for much of the batting average drop. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please. You can divide Washingtons offense into two distinct parts. Over the last decade, ZiPS has averaged 19.9 correct teams when looking at Vegas preseason over/under lines. They then run the simulation 20,000 times. After applying the new strength of schedule calculations based on the other 29 teams, I end up with the standings for each of the million seasons. Im inclined to agree that theres probably no way to truly solve the hangover, but I think theres also almost certainly a type of player profile that could be identified who would be less liable to suffer so much on the road. The Cubs are making noise about spending this winter, but they need a couple of starting pitchers, a first baseman, most of a bullpen, and a DH to really threaten the top two teams in the Central. Help Support FanGraphs. No team spent more during the offseason than the Rangers a fascinating turn after the club lost 102 games in 2021. While the Guardians seem to be content to let their kids play in 2022, the Tigers went out and acquired a ton of talent to supplement their top prospects who are ready to graduate to the majors: Javier Bez, Eduardo Rodriguez, Meadows, and Tucker Barnhart. Now, the late-80s Braves eventually became the 90s Braves, something the Rangers are no doubt striving for, but getting from Point A to Point B isnt a route you can just put into your cars navigation system. Ralph Garza Jr. and the Sometimes Sidearmers, Beat the Shift Podcast Catcher Episode w/ Vlad Sedler, Starting Pitchers Arent Leaning On Their Best Pitches. The Cardinals probably have the best shot at toppling the Brewers atop the NL Central, but their case took a blow when Jack Flaherty and Alex Reyes went down with shoulder woes. Tampa Bay won 100 games last year, and the bulk of that same roster returns in 2022. ZiPS misses for teams from year to year are uncorrelated with an r^2 of one years miss to the next of 0.000575. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors ATC further sets itself apart from other statistical aggregation methods. The rebellious part of me wanted to pick Steven Kwan as my staff pick for Rookie of the Year, but with Julio Rodrguez and Torkelson both going north with their teams, that would have been a stretch. by Retrosheet. Theyve assembled a surprisingly competent starting rotation given their home park, but the supporting cast for whichever stars are on their roster be it Bryant, Story, or Nolan Arenado just hasnt been good enough. Every spot of the lineup is projected to be worth at least two WAR, even the shortstop crater that Jeremy Pea will seek to fill. That doesnt mean we should bank on it; Oakland has lost a lot of people who are really good at playing baseball. Thats a trickier question, given the contours of the roster. Adding Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Jon Gray, Mitch Garver, Kole Calhoun, and Brad Miller certainly lifts the ceiling of their roster, but it still remains incredibly top heavy. Theyll have their work cut out for them in a stacked AL East, especially after missing out on the playoffs by one game last year, but their combination of young star power and big-name offseason acquisitions should get them over the hump and back into the postseason in 2022. Taking home runs away in Baltimore seems like a cruel reward for fans who have been dragged through three 100-loss seasons in the last four years. As for Washington, lets just say that their second-best projected offensive player was someone who I wasnt completely sure I had heard of before. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Despite losing Freddie Freeman, the Braves have managed to restock a significant portion of their roster in their quest to become the first repeat World Series champions since the 19982000 Yankees. Giants only at 81 wins? Posey retired, Kevin Gausman left to the Blue Jays, and Kris Bryant is a free agent and likely not going back to the Giants. The White Sox should still be more comfortable than they were before the Twins collapsed last season, as Minnesota hasnt completely solved its rotation woes. Check out these NFL playoffs picks and predictions for the game, which can be seen at 1 p.m. MST on CBS and Paramount+. Interestingly, projected for the 8th best record and 4th best (tied) run differential. But the lineup imploded. Projected lineup. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors They also forecast a drop from 5.9 fWAR in 2022 to 3.3 in 2023. Read the rest of this entry . And the As, well, they didnt have anyone good enough to lose, which is something! That is the case here, as the MAE of 8.3 wins is above the ZiPS historical average of 7.5 (not including 2020). Ariel is a member of the inaugural Tout Wars Draft & Hold league, a member of the inaugural Mixed LABR Auction league and plays high stakes contests in the NFBC. The Yankees may not bring Aaron Judge back, but it would be absolutely shocking if they didnt do something to replace the wins they would lose with his departure. The least the team could do is let the Orioles faithful have some fun at the ballpark. The exercise continues this offseason. The Blue Jays strengths are undeniable: a potent lineup that scored the third-most runs in baseball last year, and the best projected starting rotation based on our 50/50 blend of FIP and RA9. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Of note is that higher-percentile projections already have more playing time than lower-percentile projections before this step. Without further ado, here are the ATC forecasted win totals for 2022: And here are the simulated standings and playoffs odds: Lets take a quick look at some of the differences between the results for the ATC projections and the FanGraphs playoff odds. by Retrosheet. Starts at 6:30 pm. ZiPS is projecting a solid return for Ronald Acua Jr., but theres still some danger in that outfield. Reports are coming in the Cleveland has extended JRam. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. The ATC projections are more bullish on the White Sox's chances in 2022, putting the odds of Chicago making the playoffs at 82% versus the FanGraphs Depth Charts (FGDC) figure of 72%. ZiPS projects the Rockies to be better than only the Nationals, but I expect the Nats have a better idea of exactly where their team is than the Rockies do. Bold of you to assume deGrom will be healthy in October. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer. Any team led by Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani has the potential to be one of the best in all of baseball. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Create an account to follow your favorite communities and start taking part in conversations. As terrific as he was in 2021, with a .271/.341/.540 line and 5.0 WAR, ZiPS isnt projecting a dropoff, thanks both to regression and because it thinks he was somewhat unlucky in BABIP the last two years relative to his hit data. Even if they are good this year, thats still the lesson. They project the Braves, or at least the current version of the Braves, to a post a 91-71 record, winning the division by one game over the New York Mets. Fangraphs: 2022 Top 100 Prospects. Any trades would be to move Rosario or one of Plesac/Civale. They re-signed postseason hero Eddie Rosario and added Kenley Jansen and Collin McHugh to bolster an already deep bullpen. by Retrosheet. The ATC projections are more bullish on the White Soxs chances in 2022, putting the odds of Chicago making the playoffs at 82% versus the FanGraphs Depth Charts (FGDC) figure of 72%. Jeremy Pea has shown plenty of promise in the minors and comes in highly regarded, but hes simply not likely to replace his production immediately or fully. Still, the Guardians entire Opening Day lineup and starting rotation is under 30, and there are a handful of top prospects close to graduating from their farm system. It boggles the mind to wonder what the Rockies would be like if their front office operated like the Rays front office. Trading for Randal Grichuk to do the same is a little less cool but still fun. The exercise continues this offseason. The projections havent figured out how to handle the Rays brand of excessively deep roster construction. The NHL has passed the mathematical midpoint of the 2022-23 regular season. So how does it work? 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